Portfolio piece by David Miessler-Kubanek · Based on Epoch AI's AI data centers dataset (CC BY 4.0)

AI Infrastructure

Frontier AI data centers are scaling to gigawatt size fast.

Some frontier AI facilities are projected to reach 1 GW of total power capacity within 1 to 3.6 years of starting construction (Epoch AI analysis, Nov. 10, 2025), compressing infrastructure buildout into a timeline that local governments and communities may struggle to match with oversight, water planning, and power planning.

Tracked with satellite imagery, permits, company disclosures, and other public documents.

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How quickly are frontier AI data centers scaling in power?

Among recently launched frontier projects tracked by Epoch AI, the path from groundbreaking to gigawatt-scale power can be measured in years, not decades.

Operational
Under construction
Total peak power of sites by start year (MW)
1 GW threshold

Note: Each site is counted in the year of its first entry in Epoch's timeline, at its highest projected facility power through 2030. Totals show planned scale, not electricity in use today. 2026 is low because only one site of 500 MW or more has a first entry that year so far.

Where local conflicts emerge.

As facilities grow larger, disputes increasingly center on resource demand, siting rules, and who gets to approve the terms.

Water demand
Evaporative cooling systems at large facilities can consume millions of gallons per day. As projects scale toward gigawatt capacity, water-use studies and disclosure requirements have become a primary flashpoint with local governments.
Electricity supply
A gigawatt-scale facility draws more continuous power than many mid-size cities. That load accelerates pressure for grid upgrades, raises questions about carbon commitments, and in some cases has prompted deals with nuclear and natural gas operators.
Zoning and land use
Industrial footprints spanning hundreds of acres frequently conflict with existing land-use plans. Developers have increasingly pursued municipal annexation into more permissive jurisdictions to sidestep county-level restrictions.
Taxation and incentives
Many jurisdictions offer substantial property-tax abatements to attract data centers. As facility size and resource demand grow, so does the public debate over whether the fiscal tradeoffs deliver meaningful community benefit.
Transparency and oversight
Facility plans often advance through non-disclosure agreements and permit exemptions, limiting public ability to assess water, grid, and environmental impacts before construction begins.

Case study

Linn County and Palo, Iowa

A local dispute shows how fast-moving infrastructure can outpace oversight frameworks when approval pathways differ across neighboring jurisdictions.

2025 to 2027
In Cedar Rapids, Epoch AI tracks the QTS campus as a site projected to reach about 1.6 GW of facility power, with the first 1 GW projected in late 2027.
Feb. 2026
Linn County adopts a data center ordinance for unincorporated areas. Large projects must complete a water study, sign a Water Use Agreement, and sign an Economic Development Agreement.
Mar. 2026
Google drops its plan to build on unincorporated county land and pursues annexation into the city of Palo, where the county's ordinance does not apply. Palo's mayor said the city did not solicit the project.
July 2026
Linn County pauses new data center rezoning in unincorporated areas for 18 months. The pause does not apply to cities, so approval pathways still differ between neighboring governments, a gap that could recur as buildout accelerates. On Oct. 5, the county board created a Data Center Advisory Committee to review local rules during the pause.
How these centers get power
Power source matters alongside capacity scale. In Iowa, Google is linked to a long-term arrangement tied to the restart of the Duane Arnold nuclear plant. Nationally, many frontier AI data center projects are also turning to natural gas for faster deployment, raising questions about the sector's long-run carbon trajectory and grid resilience.
Method and sources

Data come from Epoch AI's AI data centers dataset (timelines file, Oct. 8, 2026), which tracks sites using satellite imagery, permits, company disclosures, and other public documents. The chart shows the 26 of 93 tracked sites whose facility power reaches 500 MW or more at any point in Epoch's timeline, including projections through 2030. Each site is placed in the year of its first timeline entry. Its power is the highest facility power in that timeline, so most figures are projections, not current load. Status is as of Oct. 8, 2026: operational if Epoch lists power above zero today, otherwise under construction. Five of the sites are outside the U.S. and appear on the chart but not the map. Map positions are approximate, based on ZIP code or state or county center, and nearby sites are nudged apart. Epoch's data can change as new information arrives.

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